Post-COVID-19 housing price corrections continue to dominate real estate headlines. Higher interest rates and economic uncertainty are two main drivers of declining median home values, and macro trends are tough to outrun for the majority of real estate investors.
Are there some bright spots in the housing market? Absolutely. PropertyReach shares crucial information on the state of the country’s real estate industry and methods to find diamonds in the rough to close out 2026.
This article draws on data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the National Association of Realtors.
Active listings in the U.S. have climbed considerably during the past three years. In August 2023, homebuyers across the country had access to 669,766 listings. However, in August 2026, according to recent data, that number had climbed to 1,140,035, a good 70% increase from three years prior.
From August 2025 to August 2026, though, U.S. housing supply increased by only 3.6%, suggesting inventory may be plateauing.
However, the robust three-year housing supply increase needs context against pre-pandemic figures. In August 2019, a few months before the first COVID-19 cases popped up in the U.S., around 1,235,300 homes were available on the active market. August 2016 featured almost 1,500,000 active listings.
Housing supply alone is not a reliable indicator of where the market—and, more specifically, the median sales price—stands going into the winter of 2026.
August 2022 saw 634,000 new one-family home sales. Exactly four years later, 684,000 homes of the same type closed for U.S. homebuyers. The lack of an increase in home sales has contributed to the median sales price slowly but steadily decreasing over the past few years.
Pending home sales, another key metric for the national housing market, also show that increases in housing supply have not translated into increases in overall home sales.
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index shows a U.S. seasonally adjusted rate of 71.2 in August 2026. That’s a 4.7% decrease relative to the same month in 2025 (74.7). The national seasonally adjusted rate has similarly decreased over the past three years.
Not every U.S. region has seen median sales prices stagnate since 2023. Prices were up 3.8% in the Northeast and 3.6% in the Midwest from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026.
The South, which became a clear seller’s market between 2020 and 2022, has shifted significantly after many of its states (notably Texas) started building homes at a rapid pace. Now that the inventory has roughly caught up with buyer demand, home prices have responded accordingly, seeing a 1.0% increase between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026.
For the first time in more than two years, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate blew past the 7.0% mark after Treasury yields increased. With the Federal Reserve raising its baseline rate from 3.63 to 3.88 in mid-September, potential homebuyers will likely remain unenthusiastic about buying a new home. Potential sellers may also rethink downsizing or upgrading rather than give up the lower rates they’re currently paying.
All the macro-level housing data you can get your hands on won’t provide the whole story as you start to identify target properties. Successful real estate investors dive deep into the granular data to evaluate promising leads and calculate expected returns from tenants.
Here are just a handful of metrics you might find helpful during your search.
Length of Ownership
Not all homeowners in a rapidly appreciating region or metropolitan area are ready to sell. One of the strongest indicators that a particular owner might be looking to make a change is a lengthy ownership tenure.
Homeowners who have stayed put for 20 years or more usually have substantial equity and are therefore more willing to accept a lower purchase price. Furthermore, they might prefer a quick, clean transaction if they own the property outright and aren’t dealing with encumbrances.
Property Tax Violations
On the other end of the spectrum, homeowners in poor financial positions might also be willing to sell sooner rather than later. A clear indicator of a distressed property is unpaid property taxes, which you can typically find online after a county government records a tax lien or delinquency.
Other public records that correlate with financially distressed properties include:
Online property search tools can supplement or verify information you find in other places on the internet.
Absentee Ownership
Another potential indication of a future motivated seller is absentee ownership. When the owner’s mailing address differs from the target address, you might have some luck convincing them to take a cash deal to get the property off their plate.
County tax assessors’ websites are great places to cross-check owners’ mailing addresses against a property they own.
Local Job Markets
Sustained rental demand only comes from strong career opportunities. Some of the states with rapidly appreciating real estate, such as West Virginia, Kentucky, and Alaska, lack strong underlying job metrics to support rental properties.
So, even though the rise in Texas home prices has cooled off in many places, few states have stronger job markets than the Lone Star State.
Few, if any, real estate investors anticipate a buying bonanza in the winter of 2026. Along with predictable seasonal trends, higher 30-year mortgage rates and consumer inflation will keep many homeowners in place—at least for the near future.
However, the most successful investors find ways to edge out the competition, and the slowed winter months are often the best time to find great deals.
This story was produced by PropertyReach and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.
